
"Package not received" is the most reported fraud pattern in DTC e-commerce in 2026. It is also the pattern where the data is most on your side — every major carrier logs delivery evidence that buyers assume you will not check. This guide walks through exactly what to pull, how to weigh it, and how to reply. At the end you have a decision tree and two ready-to-paste support templates.
Why "Not Received" Is Different From Other Patterns
Most return fraud requires evidence from the buyer (a photo, a claim description). "Not received" flips it — the buyer's claim is the absence of evidence. That sounds weaker but it is actually stronger, because:
- The buyer does not have to fabricate a photo.
- The burden of proof defaults to you, the merchant, in every EU and most US consumer-protection frameworks.
- Amazon A-to-Z and eBay Managed Returns decide in the buyer's favour unless you upload carrier evidence quickly.
The defence is to move the burden back by pulling data from the carrier that the buyer does not know you have.
The Carrier Data You Can Pull Right Now
Every major carrier provides a programmatic API with delivery metadata. The fields vary, but the evidence you want to collect is always the same four:
| Carrier | Delivery scan | GPS on scan | Photo proof |
|---|---|---|---|
| DHL Paket (DE) | Yes, timestamped | Yes, included in `/shipments` API response | Yes, for Packstation + on-request for door delivery |
| DPD (EU) | Yes, timestamped | Partial — district-level only | No (unless signed) |
| UPS (US + EU) | Yes, timestamped | Yes, via Quantum View | Yes, via `POD` endpoint |
| DHL Express (intl) | Yes, timestamped | Yes, via Waybill Tracking API | Yes, signature/photo capture |
| USPS (US) | Yes, timestamped | No GPS but delivery-point barcode scan | Yes, Informed Delivery (opt-in) |
| Hermes / evri | Yes, timestamped | Partial | Yes for 'safe place' deliveries |
| Amazon Logistics | Yes, timestamped | Yes (seller-scraping blocked; fed via PO-D) | Yes |
The two rows to memorise: DHL Paket and UPS both give you GPS and a delivery photo with an API call. For European DTC, DHL Paket covers 60–70 % of residential traffic. That's your highest-leverage data source.
A Four-Step Response Workflow
This is the script our support-lead users run every working day. It takes 3–5 minutes per case and catches roughly 70 % of the fraud while keeping genuine customers happy.
Respond to a 'package never arrived' claim
Run all four steps before committing to a refund or a replacement.
- Pull the carrier tracking recordVia the carrier API or the tracking page. Capture: delivery date + time, delivery scan location (PLZ/ZIP or GPS if available), photo proof URL, and the signature/photo name. Save as a PDF attached to the support ticket.
- Verify the delivery address matches the shipping labelGPS coordinates on the scan should be within 100 m of the buyer's shipping address. If they are in a different postcode, the parcel went to the wrong address — that is carrier liability, not yours or the buyer's.
- Check for Packstation or neighbour deliveryGermany specifically: DHL frequently delivers to a Packstation or to a neighbour. 30 %+ of 'never received' claims turn out to be parcels sitting in a Packstation the buyer has forgotten about. Check the parcel status for the exact pickup point.
- Draft a reply based on the evidenceIf carrier GPS + photo confirm delivery to the correct address: send template 'Evidence Review' (below). If evidence is missing or ambiguous: send template 'Investigation Hold' (below) and wait.
Two Templates Your Team Can Paste Tomorrow
Both of these are deliberately calm, factual, and never accuse anyone of fraud. They are designed to (a) signal to genuine customers that you are taking them seriously and (b) signal to fraudsters that you have the data.
Template "Evidence Review" — when carrier proof supports delivery
Hi [customer_first_name],
Thank you for reaching out about order #[order_id]. I've pulled the carrier's delivery record and I want to share what we see:
- Delivered: [delivery_date] at [delivery_time] by [carrier_name]
- Delivery location: [delivery_gps_or_zip] — this matches the address on your order.
- Proof of delivery: [photo_link_or_signature_name]
Because the carrier has delivered to the correct address with proof, we can't process a refund from our side. What we can do is help you file a claim with [carrier_name] — they investigate lost or mis-delivered parcels at that stage and often locate them within 72 hours.
If you would like me to open that claim, reply to this email and I'll start the paperwork. Alternatively, it is worth checking with neighbours and the local post office / Packstation — about a third of 'not received' cases in our data turn out to be parcels held for pickup.
This reply resolves cleanly in about 40 % of cases: the customer checks with a neighbour, finds the parcel, and moves on. Another 30 % never reply — our inference is they understand the request and give up. The remaining 30 % escalate further and you need a human reviewer.
Template "Investigation Hold" — when evidence is ambiguous
Hi [customer_first_name],
Thank you for letting us know about order #[order_id]. We are opening an investigation with the carrier right now — [carrier_name] usually responds within two business days.
While the investigation runs, a few questions that will speed things up:
- Where was the parcel supposed to be delivered — your door, a neighbour, a Packstation, or a safe place?
- Did you receive a delivery notification (SMS or email) from the carrier? If yes, what time?
- Have you already checked with neighbours or the local post office?
I'll be back in touch as soon as the carrier confirms what they see. Your refund or replacement will depend on their finding, but we aim to resolve this within 3 business days either way.
This buys you 48–72 hours of legitimate investigation time. It does not commit you to a refund, but it also does not refuse one. Most buyers — genuine and fraudulent — are OK with this pause because it is procedurally reasonable.
When to Involve the Payment Provider
If a buyer files a chargeback before you finish the investigation, you have about 7 days to submit evidence to the issuing bank. The bundle to upload:
- Shipping label with order ID
- Carrier tracking with delivery scan + timestamp
- GPS coordinates of the scan (screenshot of the carrier API response is fine)
- Photo proof of delivery
- The customer's IP address at checkout + device fingerprint (Mollie and Stripe both expose these)
- Any support correspondence showing your investigation offer
Mollie, Stripe, Adyen and PayPal all accept PDF bundles. Upload within 48 h of the chargeback notification — the win rate drops sharply as the window closes.
Red Flags That Move a Case Up to Human Review
A few patterns worth watching:
| Red flag | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| First order + 'never arrived' within 48 h of delivery scan | Fraudsters rarely wait. Genuine customers usually realise after a few days. |
| Shipping address in a shared accommodation (student hall, apartment complex) | Higher rate of genuine mis-delivery. Warranted investigation, not auto-refund. |
| Customer refuses to file a carrier claim | Genuine buyers welcome the claim because it often finds the parcel. Fraudsters refuse. |
| Multiple orders from the same address in 30 days, all with 'never arrived' reports | Near-certain fraud. Escalate to risk team, consider blocking the address. |
| Order was routed via freight-forwarding service (Shipito, MyUS) | Known fraud vector. Requires additional ID verification before refund. |
| Claim filed on Sunday evening against a Saturday delivery | 72h-window pattern: the customer waited exactly long enough to claim non-arrival without triggering the carrier's lost-parcel window. |
None of these are proof of fraud on their own. They are signals that the case deserves human attention instead of an automatic refund. The cost of one human reviewer for an hour (€30) is cheaper than one unjustified refund (€80 AOV × your margin).